The BJPs prospects in this election in Kerala again looks grim. In the last 2004 election, the BJP was riding an unprecedented popularity in Kerala especially Trivandrum where its Poster boy Mr.O.Rajapgopal was contesting. Creditably he polled 228,000 votes (almost 30%) narrowly finishing third. In fact he established significant leads in the Trivadnrum city constituencies. Also, even though Godhra happened, the BJP came out relatively unscathed in Kerala and people started realising that the BJP was as communal or as secular as the congress or the left. This time around, the BJP suddenly has a much more communal image courtesy Varun Gandhi, Advani's utterences on Ram temple and the absence of Mr.Vajpayee. Secularism is indeed important for the Kerala voter.
Now on the eve of the 2009 elections, the BJP again has no real chance of winning even a single seat. Trivandrum, Palakkad and Kasargod are three constituencies where it polls more than 100,000 votes. Calicut is another one where they might poll close to 100,000 again. Trivandrum is a tricky seat for the BJP in the sense, where do they put their expectations at: Is it the 228,000 Rajagopal polled or the 38,000 odd that C.K.Padmanabhan got in the bye-election in 2005 ? Well their actual numbers should be somewhere in between, Tea stall estimates around 50,000 political votes for the BJP in TVM. They should poll anywhere between 75,000 to 100,000 this time around. The large number of voters who voted for Rajagopal were personal votes and neutral voters who might be split in favor of the UDF, LDF and even BSP this time around. Shashi Tharoor has impressed the city voters and this will affect the BJP's vote share. To the BJP's credit though, Mr Krishnadas's campaign has been pretty decent, unlike poor CKP.
In Palakkad, the BJP candidate polled alsmost 148,000 votes (18%), its second highest in Kerala. This time around CKP is the BJP candidate. Now CKP has a very poor track record, he didnt impress TVM voters in 2005 and when he stood for assembly elections in Kasargod (2001), again the BJP lost ground. The guy comes across as rather pompous and seems unable to connect to the voters, especially when he is giving a speech. Given his track record and the intense 4 way fight in Palakkad, expect the BJP to lose some ground here and end up with around 100- 125,000 votes.
Kasargod is one constituency where the BJP can be expected to improve its vote share. They have fielded K.Surendran, an ABVP leader and a dynamic young leader. His campaign has been aggressive and intense. Here the BJP has played for winning over the Kannadiga and Marathi community votes which account for 35% and is its traditional stronghold. The BJP expects significant gains in the Kasargode assemble segments of Manjeshwaram, Kasargod, Hosdurg and Uduma. But it is really weak in the Kannur assembly segments of Thrikkaripur, Thaliparambu and Payyanur which are also part of Kasargode constituency. Its weakness in the Kannur constituencies are probably going to push it again to third place. But expect the BJP candidate to win between 150,000 - 200,000 votes here.
In the last election, the BJP polled upward of 50,000 in all but two constituencies (Alappey and Kannur). In Manjeri and Ponnani it had polled ~ 80,000 votes each. Here the communal divide is very sharp and the BJP can expect to retain these votes. In Calicut where it polled 98,000 votes last time around, the BJP has done a good campaign and will probably cross the 100,000 mark this time. In 2004, the BJP had 10.4% of the total votes and NDA (BJP and IFDP) got 12.1 % and one seat. In 2009 expect the vote share to go down slightly and no seats. A shame that the party's growth has been stunted through its inept local leadership and is unable to make any significant alliances and provide an alternative to the Kerala voter, who keeps on voting for the congress and its "outside supporter". Right now one way or the other, the congress knows it will gain 20 seats from Kerala towards its cause (or in other words 20 seats from Kerala will be against an NDA government).
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Good study friend
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