Calling the Trivandrum 2009 Loksabha Election Post Poll prediction

2009 Trivandrum election predictions.

In this second part of our prediction of Trivandrum results, we take a look at the votes polled, the polling percentage and makes a final call. (Our pre poll prediction) Here is a look at how the polling this year compare with previous elections. The polling percentages for Trivandrum is being reported by the Kerala Election Commission as 65.731% (758,000) and the detailed breakdown is as follows:

Kazhakkoottam	94712	147166	64.24%
Vattiyoorkavu	96859	158092	63.43%
Thiruvananthapuram	100437	162232	59.68%
Nemom	100012	155112	64.38%
Parassala	123508	176495	69.88%
Kovalam	116383	170724	68.14%
Neyyatinkara	103012	148265	69.4%
	734,924	1118086	65.73%

This is along our predicted polling which was 66% and 730,000 votes. So does our predictions given above still hold ?? Tea Stall would like to take this opportunity to make some edits to those numbers, though it does not change by much

Since there was higher polling in Parassala, Neyyatinkara and Kovalam where Mr. Neelan Nadar has higher influence, we expect BSP to poll more than we predicted. Even though we expect the BSP to eat into both LDF and UDF votes equally, for making this projection we have assumed the BSP to affect the UDF more. If the BSP votes go down by about 20,000 votes it should be split 12,000 – 8,000 in favor of UDF and the UDF majority will increase.

Contrary to general perceptions that the voting in the city was comparatively less, Tea stall thinks the voting was actually higher than usual. Compare these numbers. The City corporation wards are split over Thiruvananthapuram, Vattiyoorkavu and Nemom constituencies and they have actually polled better than in 2006 assembly elections where Trivandrum North (Vattiyoorkavu) polled 61%, West (Thiruvananthapuram) 51% and East, (Nemom) polled 60%. Tea Stall still expects UDF and Mr.Tharoor to do well here.

Here is out final breakdown.

We expect BSP and Mr. Nadar to poll more than 100,000 Votes. BJP and NCP should account for 80,000 votes in all. CPI used to have a base vote of 275,000, which will slightly go down because of the “Nadar” effect.

Party	Votes	~ %
INC (I)	278,000	37.7
CPI	267,000	36.3
BSP	110,000	15
BJP	72,000	10
NCP	8,000	1
Total	735,000	100

Tea Stall stands by its initial prediction of a UDF and a Mr.Tharoor victory by a majority of around 10,000 votes or higher.

P.S. The Disclaimer still hold true.