A shot in the dark

Its 1:15 AM on D-Day and we are making our prediction for the next Govt.

Tea Stall thinks the verdict today will throw up a hung parliament with neither alliance (UPA, NDA and Third front) having the required numbers.

Here is a compilation of various exit poll numbers.

Coalition Performance	BJP + NDA Allies	Congress + UPA Allies	Third Front	Others & Ind
Star News	196	199	100	36
CNN-IBN	175-190	210-225	95-110	40-55
Times Now	183	198	-	162
Headlines Today	180	191	38	134
NDTV	177	216	105	45

Well based on these numbers, Tea Stall is going to take a gamble that even though the NDA might have marginally less (we do not expect the NDA to trail the UPA by more than 20 seats) seats than the UPA, it could just about poach enough members from the Third front to put up a coalition govt. Of course we are assuming that the UPA does a little worse than most expects.
The CNN-IBN exit polls have now been *ahem* "revised" on the eve of counting day and it now is very close to the NDTV numbers. Hope they dont revise it sometime today again.

The following three scenarios are likely:

1. If the left manages to keep the third front alive, there is the option the UPA might support it from the outside which means we will have elections in less than 2 years again.
Our Verdict: heaven forbid...This is our worst fear.. highly unlikely

2.The UPA gets something like 215 seats, then including the fourth front of Lalu and such, the UPA is close to 250 seats and it will have enough critical mass to attain the majority even without the left. This is the scenario being predicted by both NDTV *and now CNN-IBN*.
Our Verdict: most likely one if the poll pundits are to be believed.

3. The UPA and NDA ends up with somewhere around 190 seats each. The left will side by the congress then to prevent the BJP from coming to power, but the rest of the third front could go over to the NDA which is another 70 odd seats + some of the others could give the NDA the required numbers.
Our Verdict: Teastall predicts the NDA to form the next govt if the margin between the UPA and NDA is less than 10 seats. This scenario is very much possible, if there is a small anti-incumbency vote against the current Govt which all the poll pundits are overlooking. (remember india shining anyone ???)

Tea stalls shot in the dark. We predict scenario 3 and an NDA govt. I bet I will get some nice odds for this bet. Where do I sign up to place bets...???

Let the fun start....